Easy Money Scanner

Interest rate futures

What is the inverse relationship between bond futures price and underlying Treasury yield?

By Easy Money Scanner · Educational reference · Not investment advice

The short answer

Bond futures prices move inversely to yields because fixed coupon payments become relatively more or less attractive as prevailing market rates change, so rising yields push futures prices down and vice versa.

How it works

This duration-driven relationship means that when the Fed raises rates or inflation expectations rise, existing fixed-coupon bond futures lose value, and the opposite occurs in falling-rate environments.

An example

When 10-year Treasury yields rose from 1.5% to 4.5% in 2022, ZN futures prices dropped significantly as the fixed 6% notional coupon became less competitive.

Risk & limitations

Convexity effects mean the price-yield relationship isn't perfectly linear, so hedges based on simple duration estimates can be imprecise during large rate moves.

Examples are hypothetical, not trade recommendations. US contract and regulatory references do not automatically apply in Canada. Rules, margin requirements and broker policies can change; confirm them with the relevant authority and your broker.

Sources & further reading